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A CEO complains that the winners of his​ "rookie junior executive of the​ year" award often turn out to have less impressive performance the following year. He wonders whether the award actually encourages them to slack off. Can you offer a better​ explanation?
Choose the correct answer below.

The winners may be suffering from regression to the mean. Perhaps they​ weren't really better than other rookie​ executives, but just happened to have a lucky year.

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